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Genghis Khan or Not? That is the Question.

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This entry was posted on 6/16/2006 12:33 AM and is filed under Ancestry.

There has been a great deal of interest in the story regarding my Y-Chromosome DNA being closely related to that of the descendants of Genghis Khan.  There have been some additional developments that I felt needed to be shared publicly, but first some background information.

 

During 2002, I was doing some work on my family history, trying to develop a family tree.  Our family records were not very comprehensive.  My uncle had done some research on my maternal side (Mayton) that indicated that this side of the family began in recent history in Virginia, migrated to North Carolina, then Alabama and then Florida over about 7 or so generations.  No information was available as to how/when they migrated from “across the pond” or from where.  On my father’s side less information was available.  Using census and other data on Ancestry.com, I know that my great-grandfather was born in Illinois and that my great-great grandfather was likely born in the lake district of England and immigrated to Illinois. 

 

I had read several books on the subject of tracing origins using DNA including Seven Daughters of Eve by Bryan Sykes (see references later) and decided to have my DNA tested by Oxford Ancestors (www.oxfordancestors.com) which is associated with Bryan Sykes.  I received my results in early 2003 which provided a Y-line signature (10 markers) and detailed information on my mitochondrial DNA.  The results indicated on the maternal side that the mitochondrial DNA may have originated on what is now the coast of France/Spain.  The Y-line information was not specific as to origin, but could be used to search Y-DNA databases for similar patterns.  These searches turned up few exact matches but some close matches in Central Europe.

 

Not too long after this I learned that Family Tree DNA was performing similar tests using 25 markers (they currently offer up to 67 markers).  Believing that more evidence is always better, I had new tests done from scratch at Family Tree DNA.  My DNA markers were the same on the markers common to Oxford Ancestors.  Searching the Family Tree DNA database revealed no exact matches at that time (there is one on 12 markers now) but many close matches in places such as China, India, Germany, Poland and other Central European locations.  My research on DNA stopped here.  I went back working in the other direction periodically checking Ancestry.com and ordering birth records to fill in my family tree (without a lot of success).

 

In April, I received a call from Oxford Ancestors letting me know that they had done additional research (not at my request) based on recent research on the descendants of Genghis Khan.  While Genghis Khan’s DNA has not been found, I understand from published research (see The Genetic Legacy of the Mongols in references below) that it has been “inferred” from living individuals.  You should also know that this research shows that about 8% of the men in the area from the Pacific to the Caspian Sea share this DNA pattern, comprising about 0.5% of the world male population (Genghis was a busy man).  In talking with Bryan Sykes, I learned that they were looking at 9 specific markers in their database and found that I matched on 7 out of the 9 and was the closest in their database from outside the area described above.  I agreed to have my name included in a press release from Oxford Ancestors which stated, in part:

 

Oxford Ancestors, the world’s foremost and leading company in ancestral DNA analysis has uncovered the first American descendent of the great warlord Genghis Khan... Tom Robinson, Associate Professor of Accountancy and professional investment consultant, of Miami, Florida, USA.

 

Tom Robinson teaches at the University of Miami, he is a well published author on financial analysis and valuation and he serves as an investment advisor. His expertise leads the Miami-born and based Professor around the globe and in this fact he resembles another man who has seen the world: the 13th century Mongol warlord, and ruler of the largest land empire in history, stretching from Eastern Europe all the way to the South China Sea, Genghis Khan.

 

But a far greater commonality was revealed to him when he found out about his ancestry through Oxford Ancestors, the world’s first and premier DNA analysis company founded and run by the progenitor of modern genealogy Professor Bryan Sykes. It turns out that Dr Robinson is a direct descendent of Genghis, and he is the first American to find this out through a genetic test. His Y-Chromosome bears an astonishing seven out of nine possible genetic markers identical to Genghis Khan’s (as DNA mutates over generations, two altering DNA markers is a remarkably low number for a period stretching over 700 years).

 

Subsequently I received a certificate (suitable for framing) that states:

 

“This is to certify that Thomas R Robinson carries a Y-chromosome which shows him to be of probable direct descent from Genghis Khan, First Emperor of the Mongols.”

 

The results did come as a surprise and I inquired as to how the DNA of the Mongolians would have ended up in England.  Professor Sykes speculated that the Vikings acquired slaves in Central Europe in an area that the Mongolians had conquered (see Jack Weatherford’s excellent book for the range of land Genghis conquered) and that these slaves may have ended up in England. While we will never know, it is an interesting conjecture.

 

I was not expecting all of the press coverage and attention being paid to this story since it did not appear I was an exact match and it seemed from published research that there were apparently a lot of potential offspring from Genghis that shared this DNA.  In correspondence with one reporter, Noah Bierman at the Miami Herald, the subject was raised about having more comprehensive DNA testing done.  Shortly thereafter I received an inquiry from JWM Productions about my travelling to Mongolia this summer to participate in filming of a previously scheduled documentary-type production.  They happened to be working with Family Tree DNA.  We tentatively booked the trip, but both JWM and I felt that we should have the results verified independently.
 

Bennett Greenspan of Family Tree DNA generously agreed to look at my results and run an SNP test to determine my haplogroup classification (see www.familytreedna.com for more information – they can explain it better than I).   In looking at my markers, Mr. Greenspan felt that it was appropriate to examine at least 12 markers and that one marker in particular (DYS 426 which is slow mutating) is particularly important.  While I matched on 8 of the 12 markers he looked at, one of the non-matches was DYS 426.  He indicated that he felt I was more likely haplogroup R1a than C3.  As I understand it the haplogroup places an individual on a limb of the global family tree and is therefore diagnostic in determining the geographic origin.  If the haplogroup test classified me as C3 that would be consistent with Mongolian ancestry and the results associated with descendants of Genghis Khan.  If on the other hand, if it confirmed R1a I was definitely related to a different Haplogroup group.  Here is what www.familytreedna.com says about R1a:

The R1a lineage is believed to have originated in the Eurasian Steppes north of the Black & Caspian Seas. This lineage is thought to descend from a population of the Kurgan culture, known for the domestication of the horse (circa 3000 B.C.E.). These people were also believed to be the first speakers of the Indo-European language group. This lineage is found in central & western Asia, India, and in Slavic populations of Europe.

On June 13, Mr. Greenspan advised me that their SNP test confirmed a classification as R1a.  He advised me that the predecessor of this group of people was thought to have migrated out of Africa 50,000 years ago or so, eventually into Central Asia and later to Eastern Europe.  Later some went to Scandinavian countries and those who moved onward to Western Europe became known as Vikings.

 

So where does this leave us?  I have done a lot of reading of research papers.  Two that are listed below seem the most relevant.  One written in 2003, Genetic Legacy of the Mongols, appeared to use 15 or 16 DNA markers in their study.  Four of these markers are not tested by either Oxford Ancestors or Family Tree DNA.  A more recent study (2005), Genetic Evidence for the Mongolian Ancestry of Kalmyks, used only 9 markers. In both studies Haplogroup C3 was considered diagnostic for the lineage Genghis Khan. Family Tree DNA reports that in their worldwide database, including 572 men from Mongolia, 47 match the Family Tree DNA 12 marker Genghis Khan modal haplotype.  This represents 8.2% of the Mongolian group which reflects the scientific studies on this haplotype as well.  All of these individuals are confirmed as being part of haplogroup C3.

I am obviously not an expert in this area (my PhD is in accounting not DNA) so I don’t know how many markers are appropriate, however the Haplogroup assignment appears important.  Based on my reading I have compiled my DNA markers with those used in the articles and compared them to what I believe is a 13 marker Mongolian benchmark.  The Mongolian benchmark I am showing here is my creation based on the articles and my understanding of nomenclature changes that have occurred.  It is not official and did not come from Oxford Ancestors or Family Tree DNA.  Other, more knowledgeable, individuals should feel free to correct me!

 

 

Oxford

Family Tree DNA

Composite

Mongolian

Marker

Ancestors

 

 

Benchmark

 

Robinson

Robinson

Robinson

**Unofficial**

DYS19

16

16

16

16

DYS388

12

12

12

14

DYS390

25

25

25

25

DYS391

10

10

10

10

DYS392

11

11

11

11

DYS393

13

13

13

13

DYS389I

13

13

13

13

DYS389II

31

31

31

29

DYS425

12

 

12

12

DYS426

12

12

12

11

DYS439

 

10

10

10

DYS437

 

14

14

14

DYS385a

 

12

12

12

 

From this data, it appears that I match on 9 out of 13 markers used in research papers.  From the 2005 paper Kalmyks classified as haplogroup C3 had DYS 389II ranging from 29 to 31 (although they used slightly different nomenclature).  This paper does not mention DYS 426 at all.

 

I will leave it to you to make your own conclusions regarding these results but here are mine.  As an academic I always believe in looking at as much evidence as possible.  The only things I am willing to conclude based on the weight of the evidence at this point is:

  • My Y-Chromosome ancestors were likely nomadic horsemen in Central Asia/Eastern Europe, but not Genghis Khan (and I will not be taken that previously scheduled trip to Mongolia).
  • Vikings may have been involved.
  • While I may be the closest match to the Mongolian DNA from west of the Caucasus mountains in databases at this point in time, other closer matches are likely to be found some of whom will be haplogroup C3.  There goes any inheritance!
  • I am an accountant (not practicing), living in the Miami area.

 

I hope to learn more in the future and will keep you posted.


Tom Robinson

[Note entry revised June 19 to include name of production company and to make my conclusions clearer per reader input] 

 

Useful Articles and Books (in no particular order)

 

“The Genetic Legacy of the Mongols,” Zerjal, et. al., American Journal of Human Genetics, 72:  717-721, 2003.

 

“Genetic Evidence for the Mongolian Ancestry of Kalmyks,” Nasidze, et. al., American Journal of Physical Anthropology, 2005, Online Publication.

 

Mapping Human History:  Genes, Race and Our Common Origins, Steve Olson, Mariner Books, 2002.

 

The Journey of Man, Spencer Wells, Princeton University Press, 2002.

 

Genghis Kahn and the Making of the Modern World, Jack Weatherford, Three Rivers Press, 2004.

 

The Seven Daughters of Eve, Bryan Sykes, Bantam Press, 2001.

 

Adam’s Curse:  A Future Without Men, Bryan Sykes, Bantam Press, 2003.

 

Before the Dawn, Nicholas Wade, Penguin Press, 2006.

 

 

 
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  • 6/21/2006 4:55 PM Tor's Rants wrote:
    Here's to the egoless pursuit of genealogy. Long may it reign, even if our ancestors didn't.
Comments
    Page: 1 of 1
    • 6/16/2006 8:15 AM Paul Doilinger wrote:
      I think the conclusion of the above findings clearly point to you not being a descendant from Genghis Khan, as Haplogroup R1a is a completely different branch from C3, which presents the mutation found in Genghis Khans descendants. It's unfortunate that Oxford Ancestors did not base their conclusion in science, and instead, rushed to find a way to use your results for their marketing purposes. While I like your research and willingness to present all the facts, I fail to understand why you did not present the plain conclusion, and instead say "I will leave it to you to make your own conclusions regarding these results". That's what led to my "dislike" vote. (Perhaps you should have a fourth option between "Liked" and "disliked", and I would have voted for it).
      Reply to this
      1. 6/16/2006 3:10 PM Tom Robinson wrote:
        I agree with you. While I also stated my conclusions I could have said it more directly. So now I will- Given a Haplogroup of R1a, I would not be descended from Genghis Kahn as I understand the SNP test.
        Reply to this
    • 6/16/2006 9:30 AM Doug McDonald wrote:
      That R1a haplotype is a rather ordinary Eastern European one. It is not Norse. It is common anywhere from Germany through
      Poland into Russia, Ukraine, the southern Baltic countries, and even down into Slovakia. You would learn more with more than 12 markers, for genealogical purposes.
      Reply to this
      1. 6/16/2006 3:12 PM Tom Robinson wrote:
        I did have more markers done. I only presented those that were relevant for matching against the research papers on the Genghis descendants.
        Reply to this
      2. 6/21/2006 6:07 PM Laura Icken wrote:
        Not true. 25% of Norwegians and around 15% or more of Swedes are R1a (and Danes, too...)
        Reply to this
    • 6/21/2006 11:31 AM Staci Siler wrote:
      Well, it was an interesting Arthur Dent connection. (Hitchhiker's Guide) though I am not trying to liken you to the hapless supervisor of the destruction of Dent's home. I was surprised you didn't think it would be noted -seeing Douglas Adams has been read by quite a few people, though granted the eccentric and drug-laden predominate the group.
      On the plus note, your Andy Warhol moment (though I am sure there were/are many more in your chosen venue) was handled very well, tactful and proper. Congratulations! :~)
      Staci
      Reply to this
    • 6/21/2006 6:06 PM Laura Icken wrote:
      Isn't Robinson a typical surname of Scandinavian origin (your people could have come from Scotland, etc. and descended from vikings)? Names with "son" tend to be such. Laura, whose son is an R1a.
      Reply to this
    • 7/29/2006 1:58 AM Wanda Redfern wrote:
      Hi Tom it was very interesting reading your blog I am also a Mayton whos ancestors migrated from Virginia to Florida I can share what knoledge I have on that side of the family We decend from the French Huegenots who fled France during the French persecution back in 1700's they fled to England then US There is a family book that has already been researched John Mayton is the ancestor that came from Virginia and that family's decendents went to North Carolina ,Tennessee ,Alabama and to Florida It would be nice to connect to other members of the Mayton family Which Mayton are you decending from? I have names and so forth of 10 generations back If interested in the info contact me thru the email I provided sincerely Wanda Mayton Redfern
      Reply to this
    • 2/12/2007 1:42 PM Bill Lipton wrote:
      LOL You walked into my little Silk Road Modal Haplotype (SMH) project -- the focus is on DYS 19/388/390/391/392/393

      In your case, the mutation rate of DUS 388 is the stickler -- apparently accepted to be once in 2500 generations (62,500 years +/-) Yours is 12 the one "assumed" for Genghis Kahn is 14 -- no way can you two be related.

      However, numerous research papers show that other Mongolian DYS388 are 12. Thus it it depends on the "probility" that Genghis was a 14 being wrong.

      What you do have is a typical six value Ashkenazi-Levite modal. AND YES this Modal traveled to Mongolia at least 800 years before Genghis was born. So he too could have been what, today, would have been identified as Ashkenazi (R1a).

      Actually, given the age of the Modal, and its origin in Turkey/Black Sea region, the Modal is Hyksos/Pheonician/ and -- duh -- Brahmin ... it got around ... traveled the full length of the Silk Road, hence my naming it SMH ...

      Your conclusion of being R1a is correct -- or a hell of a lot of people are really C ... The problem here is two fold -- one, assumed Kahn values; two, the basic distaste for the idea that Kahn's family/clan/tribe might have had it's origins in the Caucasus and been historically (c 4000 BCE) Canaanite and part of Hittite Dispora.
      Reply to this
    • 2/19/2007 2:01 AM Kent H. Pryor wrote:
      Oxford Ancestors notified Tom Robinson and their press release readers that Robinson is a descendant of Genghis Khan and is the only tested man outside of Central Asia matching their Genghis profile. But they only identified a seven-marker-out-of-nine match, and Robinson investigated further, concluding that he was probably not a Genghis Descendant blog at http://trrobinson.com/2006/06/16/genghis-khan-or-not--that-is-the-question.aspx . This is an attempt to put some numbers to that, and show that the probability of Robinson being a descendant is below one and one-half percent, and more likely is much m,uch closer to zero.

      To improve on the accuracy of Oxford’s comparison, Robinson selected thirteen markers to compare between his Y-DNA and FTDNA’s Genghis Khan benchmark. Let us use them to estimate the number of generations back to the common ancestor between Robinson and whatever male Mongol passed these thirteen markers down to eight percent of today’s male Central Asians. Then we want to look at its probability distribution to guess how likely that the common ancestor was around the time of Genghis Khan.

      There are thirteen markers available that are represented for both the Robinson composite and the Unofficial Mongolian Benchmark, with ten comparing exactly. The other three markers differ by two, two, and one mutations, for a total “distance” of five. Ghengis Khan (1165-1227) did his main breeding about 800 years ago, which is about 40 generations back (using a popular figure of 25 years per generation).

      The FTDNA web site provides TMRCA (Time to most recent common ancestor) probability curves for the 12, 25, and 37 marker matches possible with their standard tests, and only for exact matches. To apply the Robinson data for 13 markers, we go instead to Doug McDonald’s calculator on the Web at http://dna-project.clan-donald-usa.org/tmrca.htm and change the mutation rate from .0033 to .002 to correspond with the more common 12 markers to represent these 13.

      This calculator does not expressly take into account the size of each marker mismatch. If we enter the literally correct 10 matches for a 13-marker set, the calculator places the 50% cumulative probability for TMRCA at 160 generations, or 120 generations before Genghis Khan. But if our minimum five mutations had occurred in five markers instead of three, presumably just as likely, the 50% TMRCA is at 275 generations. This more conservative calculation is probably more accurate. The cumulative probability that the TMRCA is within the 40 generations since Genghis Khan is .015 for the first assumption, and is still zero (to three decimal places) for the second. Either way, it is very improbable that the common ancestor lived around Genghis Khan’s time or later.

      If there is an inheritance available to Robinson from this more ancient ancestor, it has almost surely passed through other individuals than Genghis Khan.
      Reply to this

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